Pakistan - its inflection point

Pakistan has been injured, Unfortunate !!

'The enemy lies within', a oft repeated catchphrase within the circle of Pakistan watchers,has been trashed with disdain by the establishment in Pakistan. 'We know who our friends and enemies are' is what the leadership has declared on various forums and occasions, whilst Prime Minister Gillani declared in his recent speech in parliament, China is our all weather friend, an obvious oblique reference to America's unilateral attack in Abbottabad. Yesterdays terrorist attack on its naval air base in Karachi,  may perhaps work as a wake up call about who the real enemy is ( the question of friends not withstanding! )

Pakistan Naval Station (PNS) Mehran, a well guarded military establishment, was stormed by 6 terrorists, who managed to wage a war in the air base for 16 hours. Whilst tragically killing 10 soldiers, and wounding 15, they managed to destroy two out of the five Orion P-3c surveillance aircrafts supplied by the United States, thereby whittling the fleet size to almost  50% of its original number. A terrible blow to Pakistan's surveillance capabilities, and more importantly, a hugely demoralizing act for the armed forces.

Whilst this attack is condemned by all, both in Pakistan and overseas, to view this attack in isolation would be myopic, there is a larger picture, almost a pattern that seems to be emerging from such attacks. The attack on the various military establishments seem to suggest insider support, and though denied by the army, proceeded to ban today, preaching teams, known as Tableeghi Jamaats, from cantonments, as possible sources of radicalizing some of the lower levels of the military. Indeed this has been found true, as some members of the armed forces sought leave of a year to move along with the preaching teams, were later found to be training militant groups. The senior military now seems to be appreciating that the radicalization of the armed forces, which began with general Zia, may not be serving the best interests of the forces. This may be perhaps, the beginning of a de radicalization of the armed forces 

Further, this may also be the turning point of the supremacy of the military and its secret service the ISI. The once almost infallible military's image has taken a beating, and it's almost god like status is being questioned by civil society, because of their inability to keep both the terrorists and the Americans in check, who, both seem to act at will, raid establishments, GHQ, Abbottabad or Mehran. Civil society is also tired of an weak and ineffective civilian democratic government, which does not have the will or the ability to take on either the military, the Americans or the militants head on, and is caught in a pincer between these three dominant forces that seem to be calling the shots in Pakistan. Whilst civil society has begun to enjoy democracy and the basic rights that it brings with it, they seem to now want to move up the value chain of democracy, and enshrine all its fruits, and without saying it, wouldn't mind the army being cut down a bit to size. The average Pakistani, does not have radical leanings, and is hurt, saddened, and despondent about his country being considered the epicenter of terrorism, would like to correct this image, and is perhaps somewhat angry that his government isn't doing enough to correct this image.

Thirdly, the dynamic shift in geo political alignments seems to be on the cards. Pakistan has seen America to be a self seeking ally, whilst the US views Pakistan with the same degree of suspicion. Both seem to be drifting apart, despite knowing they need each other, a freeze in relations is imminent. As the two countries are distancing themselves, Pakistan seems to be dangerously close dancing with China, its 'all weather friend', and the US, getting closer to India. This doesn't auger well for any one, as the Chinese dragon is land and resource hungry, has its long term energy and mineral security in mind while befriending Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Finally, the relations of Pakistan with its neighbor India must come under intense scrutiny, not as an existential threat, but as potential trade and cultural partner, thereby benefiting both countries enormously.The sovereignty of Pakistan is being challenged, indeed so that of India too. Both countries have their subsets of problems and issues to deal with, and both are trying to grapple with them. Each country seems to take great pleasure in pointing an accusing finger at the other, without realising whilst one finger points at the other, four point in one's own direction. Whilst we both spend billions of our resources amassing troops in the Kashmir war front, the Kashmir's have no time for either of us. Such is the irony of our relation !

Pakistan has reached an inflection point in its history and existence, and time will show if they respond in a statesman like manner, to emerge stronger and capable of dealing with issues that challenge its very being.