A hope for tomorrow

India’s foreign secretary, Nirupama Rao's visit to Pakistan would constitute the first formal talks between the two countries since November 2008, when talks were suspended after the Mumbai attack on 26/11 by Pakistan based militants. 

A hectic schedule of high flying diplomacy precedes the Islamabad visit ;  Ms. Rao has just concluded a three day visit to Myanmar, as part of a delegation led by External Affairs Minister SM Krishna, to establish new relations with the military led government of that country. She is scheduled to leave for Pakistan for the foreign secretary talks next morning. Ms Rao and her Pakistani counterpart Salman Bashir are to discuss "peace and security, Jammu and Kashmir as well as friendly exchanges”. 

The foreign secretaries are expected to discuss the trust deficit that exists between the two countries and how to bridge it, the Kashmir issue, which, according to Pakistan, lies at the heart of tension between the two countries. India however differs, and feels that Kashmir is an integral part of India, and a matter to be resolved first between itself and the Kashmiri's and then Pakistan and the Kashmiri's of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Analysts however rightly feel that there will be no dramatic breakthrough, “It is a revival of the peace process", said Mutahir Ahmed, Professor at the University of Karachi.

The peace and friendship talks assume greater significance at a personal level for Ms Rao, as just today, New Delhi announced her appointment as the next Indian Ambassador to Washington. Buoyed by her enhanced stature, the possibility of a display of greater initiative cannot be ruled out.

However, the issue of Pakistan's 'Azad Kashmir' is much more complex than it appears. Whilst India is quite clear that Jammu & Kashmir is an integral part of India, Pakistan insidiously hides behind the veil of calling Pak occupied Kashmir (POK) as Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK). While AJK now has its ‘own’ elected legislature, however ineffective, candidates applying to run for the legislature are made to sign a declaration beforehand, which reads as:

“I solemnly declare that I believe in the Ideology of Pakistan, the Ideology of State’s Accession to Pakistan and the integrity and sovereignty of Pakistan.”

thereby blowing the cover of Pakistan that the territories held and controlled by them in Kashmir, is 'Azad'. The debate between the foreign secretaries therefore gets even more contentious, with both countries holding on to their respective positions and territories and not willing to concede to the aspirations of the Kashmiri people.

However both sides seem to be eager to create the right atmosphere for the talks. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has intervened to get the mercy petition hastened of Pakistan's virologist, Dr. Kahleel Chishty, imprisoned in India for 18 years on a murder charge. To add more goodwill, young boys and men aged between 10 to 21 years imprisoned in India for overstaying their visas will also be released. Pakistan on its part, will hand over the sailors who were part of the MV Suez crew, and their release obtained by Ansar Burney, the very respected Human Rights activist of Pakistan. 

Further, there appears a discernable shift in the 'India centric' strategy of Pakistan. Often described as an army with a state, the military over the the last 63 years, focused obsessively on its rivalry with India. However, lately, large elements within that military appear to be switching obsessions, and the United States is replacing India as a country wanting to keep Pakistan in a state of chaos.  Last month, Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, Hussain Haqqani, addressing a large gathering of officers at Pakistan's National Defence University, asked the audience who, in their opinion, was the major threat to Pakistan: Internal terrorism, India or America? An over whelming majority felt it was America. This shift from the 'India Centric' enemy policy may be construed as 'advantage India' and therefore an opportunity for improving relations.

 Perhaps, somewhere in the back of the minds of policy makers could also lie the uneasy feeling that the rest of the world considers Pakistan as a dangerous place to be in. The Foreign Policy magazine in its Failed States list, has positioned Pakistan as 12th, just above Yemen. Another list published shows India's neighbours, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan as failed states, may again prod Pakistan to improve its global image as a failing state. 

The Pakistan of yesteryear, when partition created the state, and the Pakistan of today are two unrecognizable images. Created with no real religious taboos, it has de generated into a bigoted state with neo religious militant groups, each preaching their own versions of enemy and hatred. It now time for the country to take charge of its mend fences with its neighbour, and focus on trade and people to people contact, rather than build nuclear arsenals. India can be a better friend than an adversary, and any opportunity to improve ties, such as the secretary level talks, should be seized upon, to walk the slow road to salvation from perdition that haunts the two countries.